By Florence Bauer

As people across much of the world have fewer children and anxieties about our demographic future rise, we often hear that this generation of young people is turning its back on families and losing interest in becoming parents.

New data from UNFPA’s global Demographic Futures Survey, released ahead of today’s World Population Day, fundamentally challenges this narrative – at least for the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The findings, based on insights from more than 13,500 digitally connected young adults aged 18 to 39 across 11 countries and territories, reveal a striking optimism. Despite living through a turbulent era marked by conflict, economic anxieties, and climate concerns, young people across the region remain fiercely optimistic and deeply committed to the ideals of family, marriage, and parenthood.

The crisis we face is not a crisis of aspiration. It is a crisis of opportunity.

Indeed, when asked about their outlook, an astonishing 65% of young people reported feeling positive about their future. To put that in perspective, only 50% of their peers in Western Europe and East Asia expressed the same optimism.

Young adults still view the family as a fundamental cornerstone of personal identity and happiness:

• 79% aspire to marry, compared to just 63% in the Western and East Asian comparison countries.
• 87% cite the joy and happiness of parenthood as a primary driver for wanting children.

The vast majority express a desire for two or more children. Family size ideals range from 2.6 children among women and 2.9 among men in the low-fertility countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, to 3.7 among both women and men in the high-fertility countries of Central Asia. Clearly, family and parenthood haven’t lost their appeal among this generation.

Why, then, do the demographics in the region tell such a different story? Why is it that birthrates have declined so drastically in Eastern Europe and parts of Central Asia?

The survey exposes a stark disconnect between what young people want and what they can actually achieve. By the time they reach their late 30s, most respondents have not come close to realizing their family aspirations. More than one in five women (22%) aged 35 to 39 have no children at all, even though almost all of them report wanting to be parents.

The result is a massive "fertility gap" – the difference between ideal and actual family size – which stands at 1.25 children for women and nearly 2 for men. Nowhere is this starker than in Ukraine, where women aspire to have three children on average, but the devastating reality of conflict has squeezed the actual average down to just over one.

What is stopping young people from having the children they want? The data maps out a strict social sequence widely shared across the region: Decent employment must come before independent housing, independent housing must come before a stable partnership, a stable partnership must come before parenthood.

When one link in this chain is missing, each subsequent life event gets postponed or suspended. For many, this means parenthood is delayed or remains out of reach altogether. The new data shows that financial insecurity is viewed as the primary barrier to both partnership and parenthood. This is followed by a lack of affordable housing, health challenges, difficulty finding the right partner, and concerns about the uneven distribution of childcare and housework.

Demographic policies have leaned toward offering short-term financial incentives, often coupled with rhetoric encouraging women to have more babies.

The new data helps explain why these approaches are failing. For a young adult struggling to find a stable job, a decent place to live, or a suitable partner willing to share the care burden, cash incentives fall flat. They simply do not address the systemic barriers along the long road to parenthood. At UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, we support governments in understanding these dynamics and putting in place the policies and programmes young people need to realize their ambitions – from life skills education to family planning, from family support policies that benefit both men and women to addressing harmful gender norms and sharing the unpaid care burden.   

Far from turning their backs on family life, our region's young people simply do not see the necessary conditions in place to achieve their goals. We can view this as a challenge, but it is also a tremendous opportunity. Young people do not need to be convinced to care about family; they already do. They just need an environment that allows them to act on that care.

If we listen to them, fix the broken links in their life journeys, and support them in realizing their goals, we can unlock the boundless potential of an optimistic, committed generation ready to build our collective tomorrow.

Florence Bauer is the Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund.

This opinion piece was originally published by Balkan Insight.